QB: Peyton Manning remains the most valuable player to his team in the league, a status he's capably and comfortably held for most of this century. It's really quite simple--Manning is in charge of the offense, moreso than any QB in the modern era. Manning calls the plays and freely (and annoyingly) makes histrionic gestures to modify plays and make sure everyone is on the same page. He rarely errs, and he's smart enough to throw it away or quickly check to another option when he does. One of the most accurate passers in NFL history, new Manning jerseys can consistently put the ball precisely where the receiver needs it and the defender can't get it, and he can do that with excellent range. Manning's highest completion percentage yet at 68.8% came in 2009, and his leadership is exceptional.
That's not to say he's infallible. We all saw chinks in the armor a little last season, with the biggest coming in the Super Bowl. Teams have caught on to the pre-snap antics and have countered with tactics of their own, showing several looks to try to keep him guessing. Despite being pressured less than any other QB, his 16 INTs in 2009 were the highest in 8 years. Some of that stems from his increasing late-game reliance on Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne, but he missed a few more reads than in the past. At 34 and looking increasingly un-athletic as he ages, Peyton just might be getting to the point where he starts to decline ever so slightly. His legendary durability can't last forever either, though because he has such a quick release and exceptional pocket awareness it's more likely he gets hurt in some minor fluke injury.
The Colts are praying that he makes every start for the 13th consecutive year, because they're in deep trouble without Manning. Curtis Painter looked very much like a greenhorn 6th round rookie in limited duty, and his inability to handle pressure appears chronic. The Colts have only carried two QBs for years now, but a birdie tells me they like Drew Willy just enough that he'll stick on the practice squad as the #3.
RB: There is a wide gulf between potential talent and actual results here. Joseph Addai is a versatile, shifty back that can make the first man miss and has good wiggle in the open field. Or at least he flashes those skills, because too often he seems indecisive and unable to break the big runs. His longest effort last year went just 21 yards, and his 3.8 yards per carry is not good enough. Some of that goes on the line in front of him and the pathetic blocking effort of the tight ends and wide receivers (more on those later), but the former 1st rounder just has not been the dynamic rusher they expected or need. He gains some of that back by being an exceptional receiver, and the Colts love using him on swing passes. Addai also thrives on draw plays, in part because of his great patience but also how well Peyton Manning sells it.
Donald Brown, their first round pick in 2009, struggled in his rookie season. He often looked unsure of where to take the run and a little too intimidated by what might be waiting for him, or as one opposing LB told me late last year, "That boy don't want no piece of gettin' smacked". To be fair to Brown, he was suffering from a chest injury, but tentative running tends to be a problem that doesn't get healed. Brown also had issues in pass protection and seemed uncomfortable with the precise timing of the pass offense, which struck me as bizarre considering I know Brown to be one of the most intelligent hombres in the league. I suspect he'll be better in his second season, but it's hard to imagine him proving worthy of the 1st round pick.
Mike Hart is the #3 and is far and away the toughest back on the team despite being the smallest player on the roster. Blessed with huge thighs and relentless drive forward, he is the best short-yardage (intentional short yardage, that is) back and is also the best pass blocker of the group. Hart could see more opportunities this year if Brown continues to struggle. There are always the caveats that Hart is reliably injury-prone and one of the slowest backs in the league. Speedy Devin Moore should stick as the 4th back, which the Colts seldom put on the active roster. That's still a meatier role than fullback, which the Colts have basically eradicated from Lucas Oil Field.
WR/TE: The Colts have talent in spades here. Reggie Wayne jerseyhas stepped from Marvin Harrison's shadow and become a legit star in his own right. Long, lithe, and blessed with some of the best body control you'll ever see, Wayne can run all the routes and make all the catches. Bagging 100 receptions last season for 1300 yards and 10 TDs, Wayne clearly established himself as an elite weapon. He should post similar yardage and TD totals this year, but a return to the 100-catch plateau seems unlikely.
That's because of the development of the young talent around him. Pierre Garcon stepped up as the field-stretching threat, formerly Wayne's domain. His deceptive acceleration and ability to change gears on the fly make him a dangerous downfield threat that can get open against a variety of coverages. The more the season progressed, the more the Colts used him almost exclusively in that capacity, as Garcon's effectiveness greatly diminishes the closer he is to the line of scrimmage. Big and tough, he is the best run blocker of anyone outside the interior OL, though he can be a tad overaggressive and take dumb penalties.
Austin Collie tied for the lead amongst rookies with 60 catches, many of them on intermediate routes as the tertiary read. That's a valuable role in this offense, and it fits Collie like a glove. He's blessed with reliable hands and good feet, though quickness is not his calling card.
Anthony Gonzalez is the wild card of the group. The 2007 1st round pick blew out his knee in the opener last year and saw Garcon and Collie step up capably. Gonzalez has more talent than either guy, but he must be fully recovered and re-establish his place in the offense. Two years ago he was one of the best third bananas in the league and an excellent 3rd down target with enough speed and elusiveness to shed the label "possession" receiver. Now he presents an interesting case of depth; he'll have to earn his old role back, but if he's healthy that shouldn't be a problem. Whomever winds up 4th on the depth chart (best bet: Collie) will represent the top fourth receiver in the NFL and could conceivably pull down 40 catches.
Dallas Clark is in the midst of a highly productive mind meld with Peyton Manning. One of the top receiving tight ends in the league, last season Clark picked up the slack of the on-the-job-training of the young wideouts, pulling down 100 catches--a staggering number for a tight end. Insanely effective split out in the slot, Clark runs exceptional routes and always makes the right coverage adjustment. He is the motion man that typically tips off the coverage to Manning, and his precision in that capacity is invaluable to the offense. That's good, because as an in-line tight end and run blocker he's almost completely worthless. Clark is the only real option at tight end; the Colts have drafted a surprising number of tight ends that are barely passable as #3 guys. Tom Santi and Jacob Tamme shared the #2 role last year with almost dead even ineffectiveness. They'll fight with Gijon Robinson, who the team uses as an H-back and even wide receiver in certain sets, and rookie 5th rounder Brody Eldridge, for the right to catch 10 or so passes and maybe make one effective run block per game. I can't overstate how pathetic the run blocking from the Colts tight ends has become, but as of yet it hasn't been enough of a burden to address.
OL: GM Bill Polian pinned the Super Bowl loss squarely on this unit, and there is no question the OL is the weakest part of the offense. Changes have been made, but this is still a legit concern.
Left to right, the likely starters are Charlie Johnson, Mike Pollak, Jeff Saturday jerseys, Kyle DeVan, and Ryan Diem. Only Saturday would rate as an above-average talent, and he's beyond his prime. Diem is a capable starter that doesn't get beat inside, but his run blocking regressed in 2009. Johnson was an improvement over Tony Ugoh at left tackle, but that is more an indictment of how lousy Ugoh played than anything Johnson has done. Newcomer Adam Terry could steal a starting spot, but he is best served as a swing backup. Terry offers more snarl and solid experience. Ugoh will likely remain as a backup and will get a shot at moving inside, but his lack of lower body strength and poor knee bend don't portend well at guard.
Pollak is a converted center, and close observation reveals a guy clearly playing out of position. He and DeVan are the lightest guard duo in the league, barely 600 pounds combined, and they play that way too. Both are better in pass protection, and they work well with Saturday to pick up interior blitzes and stunts. But they struggled in the Super Bowl and have not fared so well against 3-4 fronts, and the lack of run blocking surge is a real problem. To that end, the Colts imported Andy Alleman, a bulldog that can play guard or center and is a run blocking specialist. He could edge out one of the starters if he proves capable in keeping Manning upright and comfortable. Young Jaimie Thomas provides beefy depth, though he remains a project in training.
Saturday very nearly left before last year, and at 35 he is nearing the end of a strong career. One of the most intelligent players in the NFL, he and Manning work in concert as well as any C/QB duo since Bradshaw and Webster. Undersized but feisty, Saturday consistently wins the leverage battles and demonstrates great technique. He rarely misses a line call and commands respect from both his peers and the guys he competes against. The new Colts jerseysare praying he can squeeze one more solid year out of his aging body. Given the scheme and how he takes care of himself, he should be the least of worries up front.
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